Is It Time To Buy SPCX?
For myself: no.
Median 1st Day: +28.8%
Median 6-month Return: -21.0%.
Despite a brilliant first day, history suggests investors will get an opportunity to buy lower sooner rather than later. I prefer to wait for that.
My honest take:
Even though the current fundamentals of the company leave much to be desired, I think SPCX is going to work out.
That said, I’m likely only to be interested as a trader for the foreseeable future. What keeps me on the sidelines when it comes to Elon’s businesses is the volatility he alone creates that other founder-led companies don’t put their shareholders through. It doesn’t fit my investor profile.
Put another way, my lack of interest isn’t because I believe SPCX stock will suck. I am avoiding it because I predict it’ll drain my human capital. To bet against the name on fundamentals alone or because Elon is involved is to ignore history or let bias have too great a hold on your investment decisions.
One final note for my “index and chill” investors: S&P Global denied SPCX a special inclusion rule, meaning it still needs to clear the profitability hurdle before joining the S&P 500. That could take a while, which actually makes it an interesting portfolio side-piece. Just don’t mistake it for a space play. The majority of SPCX’s TAM is AI (93% v 7% for Space/Connectivity). If you want space exposure, set your sights elsewhere.
Key
Macro Economic Events
Corporate Earnings
High Importance
See Note Section Below For Additional Insight
Monday
Empire State Manufacturing Survey (June) | Est. 13.9; Prior 19.6 | 08:30
Industrial Production (May) | Est. 0.3%; Prior 0.7% | 09:15
Capacity Utilization (May) | Est. 76.2; Prior 76.1 | 09:15
Progressive (PGR) | BTO — update on insurance inflation.
Tuesday
None Scheduled
Wednesday
U.S. Retail Sales (May) | Est. 0.5%; Prior 0.5% | 08:30
Retail Sales ex-Autos (May) | Est. 0.6%; Prior 0.7% | 08:30
FOMC Interest-Rate Decision | 14:00
Fed Chairman Warsh Press Conference | 14:30
- First insight into the Fed’s response function to energy-related inflation under new leadership: look-through or react.
- Warsh has hinted at preferring less Fed communication, arguing the Fed is over-communicating, generating mixed messages that undermine credibility rather than provide transparency.
- Also our first read on whether Warsh is influencing the committee or vice versa. He’s called for a “regime change” at the Fed. Easier said from the outside than when confronted with the realities of the job.
Thursday
Initial Jobless Claims (June 13) | Est. 226,000; Prior 229,000 | 08:30
Accenture (ACN) | BTO — once heralded as an AI winner, this has been caught up in the SaaS-pocalypse. Any signs of life would be welcome for the software cohort (IGV names).
Kroger (KR) | BTO — update on food inflation, which may be under pressure due to increased fertilizer costs via the Strait of Hormuz bottleneck.
Friday
Juneteenth Federal Holiday — None Scheduled
Gorilla With Glasses 