Retired November 2025 – 9:25

The Week Behind The bull thesis continued to pick up steam. CPI came in as expected, marking the third consecutive MoM decrease in core inflation. Alongside December Payrolls showing wage-inflation may be rolling-over, the data is making a case for the Fed to only hike 25 bps at their next meeting, which would be bullish…

The Week Behind Behind a bullish embrace of December Payrolls and Services ISM, the majors turned what was looking like a negative week into a positive one. Payrolls showed wage inflation had slowed. For the first time since the COVID-recession, Services ISM revealed contraction. Both suggest services inflation is coming under control. These perceived wins…

The Week Behind Without any news or headlines, the majors ended last week flat to slightly negative. The DOW lost 0.17%; the S&P 500 skimmed ~0.14%; the NASDAQ stumbled ~0.30%.  Highlights Perspective: The New Hurdle Rate The US 1-Year Treasury (US1Y) closed the year with a yield of ~4.7%. In other words, the short-term, risk-free…

The Week Behind In the week ahead of the Christmas Holiday, as expected, volume was lean. I think this contributed to the magnitude of the volatility experienced as the Bank of Japan (BoJ) made a major policy change, influential companies reported earnings, and economic data was hotter than expected. Only the DOW managed to eke…

The Week Behind Despite the benign CPI, the Fed provided a more hawkish outlook than anticipated, catalyzing a multi-session sell-off. Principally, Powell made it clear, while recognizing improvements in inflation data, the Fed will not be satisfied until wage inflation is tamed, which, according to their projections, may require unemployment to reach 4.6% by the…

The Week Behind Prompted by an article in the WSJ authored by Nick Timiraos, the Fed Whisperer, which implied a terminal rate above 5%, recession talk dominated last week’s tape. Talks centered on the variable and lagged effects of what would be 500+ basis points of tightening at a record pace as steep inversions across…

The Week Behind  In my view, last week’s major economic developments – Powell’s speech, PCE, November Payrolls – were balanced. They each had a little something for the bulls and a little something for bears. Despite the neutrality, markets across asset classes – currencies, bonds, equities – reacted to each with a bullish bias. Endorsed…

The Week Behind  During the holiday trading week, indices put on some turkey weight as yields and the dollar continued to show weakness. In my view, Wednesday’s releases, on balance, justify the moves made across markets: stocks, bonds, currencies. Of those releases, the FOMC Minutes proved to be the most consequential. In line with prior…

The Week Behind  In a week characterized by crosscurrents, major indices leaned slightly lower. With respect to inflation, while PPI continued downward, reinforcing CPI, hotter-than-expected U.S. Retail Sales provided some contrary data. Otherwise, the markets had to contend with a missile incident in Eastern Europe and an incredibly hawkish FED President. The DOW closed the…

The Week Behind  A Cool CPI for October means a cool week of gains for the majors. As CPI hit the wire, the US2YR and US10YR each lost ~30bps: a massive move in the bond market. Equally impressive, the USD experienced its worst day in 7 years. In other words, both the bond and currency…