Retired November 2025 – 9:25

The Week Behind  The FED was uncomfortably hawkish and Payrolls were uncomfortably hot. While there is nuance to each, the week saw the majors end lower as treasury yields ended higher. The DOW trimmed 1.4%, S&P lost 3.35%, and the NASDAQ dropped 5.45%. For a second consecutive week, this time in a down tape instead…

The Week Behind  Despite what can only be characterized as a mega-cap meltdown, the major indices ended the week firmly in the green. Treasury yields and the USD behaved as weak earnings and economic data provided the first signs of definitive evidence FED policy is having the intended effect on the real economy, which fuels…

The Week Behind  In the first full week of earnings season, the major indices put together a strong performance. While the US Dollar and Treasury Yields also ended higher, both retreated from their highs in the latter half of the week, allowing equities to turn green on “better-than-feared” earnings. For now, it appears stock prices…

The Week Behind  While there was no shortage of volatility, the major indices remained relatively unchanged ahead of Thursday’s CPI report. September Core CPI came in hot at 6.6%, a new peak, causing stocks to gap lower at the open. The NASDAQ and S&P made fresh 52W intraday lows. However, within the first 30 minutes…

The Week Behind  Spurred by a combination of weaker-than-expected economic reports that might give the FED reason to pause, equities started the week with a lift. However, on Friday morning, September Payrolls painted a contrary picture, revealing a decrease in unemployment: the metric the FED must see increase before slowing the pace of tightening. On…

The Week Behind  It was another down week for markets. Core PCE was hot. US Treasury Yields and the US Dollar continued upward. Hawkish FED speakers offered no reprieve. The S&P500 and DOW both closed at new 52W lows, losing ~3% in the process. The NASDAQ finished 2.69% lower, but remains ~10 points above its…

The Week Behind  The FED used September’s FOMC Meeting to showcase their determination to beat inflation by any means necessary, even if it requires bringing on and enduring a recession and sacrificing their co-mandate of full-employment. With no relief for markets, a retest of June’s lows was initiated. The DOW failed its retest, closing ~200…

The Week Behind  It was a tough week for the bull case. August CPI revealed inflation is stickier than the bull’s anticipated, thus implying the FED will need to tighten conditions further, which sent the US2YR to highs not seen since 2007. FedEx (FDX) preannounced ~30% Q1 EPS miss, providing bears their first piece of…

The Week Behind All the major indices finished in the green, snapping multi-week losing streaks. The DOW finished up 2.66%; S&P up 3.65%; and the NASDAQ took the cake up 4.14%. Highlights Contextualizing A Week In The Green  While it is a relief to see some green after three consecutive weeks of red, I think…

The Week Behind Fostered by cooperative treasury yields and a “goldilocks” payrolls (August Nonfarm) report, equities appeared to be on track for a neutral, or even slightly positive, week. However, news broke that Nord Stream, the pipeline responsible for transporting Russian natural gas to Europe, would be shut off indefinitely. Reminded of looming geopolitical and…