FlashNotes

Retail sales for May appear to have validated the popular idea that consumers are getting more selective. 📍 Retail Sales: 0.1% actual vs. 0.2% estimated.📍 Retail Sales Minus Autos: -0.1% actual vs. 0.2% estimated.📍 Revisions lower to prior months. The report indicates consumers aren’t spending as much, implying that inflation (and growth) will continue to…

A Bit of Background For years, I had been happily married to my Samsung devices. But earlier this year, in a moment of weakness fueled by Vision Pro hype, I converted to Apple via the iPhone 15 Max Pro. My brother, the family’s resident Apple aficionado, rolled out the red carpet for my transition. My…

May CPI came in softer-than-anticipated this morning: Relief on inflation has mitigated the impact of last Friday’s hawkish Payrolls on interest rate expectations. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, two interest rate cuts this year remains consensus: the first in September and the second in December. The market is up nicely on the news. For…

Around the time Nvidia (NVDA) first cracked $800 and Apple (AAPL) was teetering in the $160s, I joked that the time to trim Nvidia would come when it surpassed Apple in market cap. The joke being this milestone would trigger algorithms and/or hedge funds to go short-NVDA and long-AAPL in a predictable attempt to showcase…

Yeah, yields are a little hotter today. Are they responsible for the tough tape? This heat map tells a different story. Nvidia is $2.5 trillion – trillion with a “t” – company. You can’t have a 9% rise in a company of that size in a single session without a lot money coming to buy…

Hershey (HSY) Under Pressure For about a year, Hershey has been a tragedy of a stock. Since topping in April 2023 around $275, HSY has fallen a little more than 30%. Why has America’s well-known chocolate-dealer fallen from Wall Street grace? Have you seen cocoa prices? Meteoric rise. High cocoa prices adversely affect HSY’s profitability,…

Jobs data for February is in! Although job creation was stronger than expected, unemployment and hourly wages, which I believe hold greater predictive value, printed dovish outcomes. 🦅 Job Creation: 275k act v 198k est.🕊 Unemployment: 3.9% act v 3.7% est.🕊 Monthly Hourly Wages: 0.1% act v 0.2% est.🕊 Annual Hourly Wages: 4.3% act v…

“Based on the meeting today, I would tell you that I don’t think it’s likely that the committee will reach a level of confidence by the time of the March meeting to identify March as the time to do that [cut interest rates]. But that’s to be seen,” Fed Chief Jerome Powell at the 2024…

Earnings The quarter itself was impressive: a narrower than expected loss alongside beats on revenue and free cash flow (the money metric). Revenue: $22.02 billion v $21.2 billion expected. EPS: -0.47 cents v -0.78 cents expected. BA did not provide 2024 guidance, messaging a square focus on safety and quality. Gorilla Take The quarter went…

About 20 minutes out from the close, and Boeing (BA) is against battling $200 on negative headlines.  The Recap To recap, I view it as a coin-toss going into tomorrow’s quarter. The money-metric is cash flow guidance: Guidance beats, stock goes up; guidance misses, stock goes down.  On one hand, the FAA’s production cap, today’s…