FlashNotes

Jobs data for February is in! Although job creation was stronger than expected, unemployment and hourly wages, which I believe hold greater predictive value, printed dovish outcomes. 🦅 Job Creation: 275k act v 198k est.🕊 Unemployment: 3.9% act v 3.7% est.🕊 Monthly Hourly Wages: 0.1% act v 0.2% est.🕊 Annual Hourly Wages: 4.3% act v…

“Based on the meeting today, I would tell you that I don’t think it’s likely that the committee will reach a level of confidence by the time of the March meeting to identify March as the time to do that [cut interest rates]. But that’s to be seen,” Fed Chief Jerome Powell at the 2024…

Earnings The quarter itself was impressive: a narrower than expected loss alongside beats on revenue and free cash flow (the money metric). Revenue: $22.02 billion v $21.2 billion expected. EPS: -0.47 cents v -0.78 cents expected. BA did not provide 2024 guidance, messaging a square focus on safety and quality. Gorilla Take The quarter went…

About 20 minutes out from the close, and Boeing (BA) is against battling $200 on negative headlines.  The Recap To recap, I view it as a coin-toss going into tomorrow’s quarter. The money-metric is cash flow guidance: Guidance beats, stock goes up; guidance misses, stock goes down.  On one hand, the FAA’s production cap, today’s…

A lot of stock were on the move this week. Here’s a quick update on the three mentioned in my Monday newsletter: Netflix (NFLX) Netflix (NFLX) has cleared a path to $600 by effectively executing their tiered pricing strategy and cracking down on password sharing while simultaneously enhancing their platform, most recently by adding live…

Introduction In my newsletter, 9:25, I recently outlined a trade in Boeing (BA). As the downside exit price of $200 has hit on an intraday basis, it is only right to release an update to assist investors in evaluating their options from here. I will also disclose how I am handling the situation. What’s Changed?…

Thesis After a faulty door plug incident on an Air Alaska flight using a 737-9 Max, BA stock swiftly plunged 23%. BA caught itself at $200: solid support level over the last 12 months. With the selling pressure on hold as the news flow has improved, I believe the stock is a prime candidate for…

The Setup The stock market is a predictive instrument. It skates where the puck is going, not where it is right now.  Technical indicators suggest ADBE is aiming to extend the 56% rally that started last May to better reflect its prospects as an AI-beneficiary, no longer encumbered by a costly acquisition (Figma). In May,…

As we close out 2023, I wanted to share my thoughts on what the year’s most consequential developments mean for the years (and, perhaps decades) ahead. Of course, I am talking about the advent of AI and the adoption of GLP-1s. Then, to conclude, I will leave you with the best piece of advice I…

Big Banks:  In the aftermath of the March Bank Scare, the “Goliath over David” thesis gained popularity. This thesis suggests that big banks like JPM, WFC, and BAC – the “Goliaths” – would benefit from the loss of confidence in regional banks – the “Davids”. The latest round of earnings solidified this thesis, revealing that…