Retired November 2025 – 9:25

Today, the Fed is expected to cut rates by another 25 bps, bringing the Fed Funds range to 4.25–4.50%. While futures have priced in ~3.75% for the end of 2025, recent economic data across inflation, labor, and growth has raised questions about whether further cuts are warranted. The debate is even more complex when factoring…

Weekly Performance S&P 500 -0.64% Equal Weight S&P 500 (RSP) -1.91% NASDAQ 0.34% DOW -1.82% Russell 2000 (VTWO) -2.58% Talk of the Tape While the major indices didn’t rollover, market breadth has evaporated as inflation data drove yields higher. The NASDAQ managed to stay flat, buoyed by pockets of strength in technology – most notably…

Weekly Performance S&P 500 0.96% Equal Weight S&P 500 (RSP) -1.40% NASDAQ 3.34% DOW -0.60% Russell 2000 (VTWO) -1.06% Talk of the Tape Bitcoin broke 100k. The US10Y took a breather. The NASDAQ woke up. Payrolls for November exposed October’s weakness as an outlier and further solidified expectations for a 25-bps cut at the December…

It’s a pretty good economy, as far as the data is concerned: 📈 Headline job creation for November came in at 227k, surpassing the 214k forecast.📈 October’s number was revised up to 36k from 12k. Here’s how I see it: The Economy With November job creation bouncing back well above the trailing three-month average, it’s…

Weekly Performance S&P 500 1.68% Equal Weight S&P 500 (RSP) 2.48% NASDAQ 1.73% DOW 1.96% Russell 2000 (VTWO) 4.46% Talk of the Tape Nvidia exposed the naysayers as AI revenue crushed pessimism. However, it wasn’t enough to sustain NVDA’s hegemony over investor capital. The breather in yields allowed money to rotate, and the stocks most…

Weekly Performance S&P 500 -2.08% Equal Weight S&P 500 (RSP) -2.12% NASDAQ -3.15% DOW -1.24% Russell 2000 (VTWO) -3.99% Talk of the Tape The market took a breather with yields exerting pressure as both economic data and Powell hinted at a slower pace of easing ahead. Pharma stocks, particularly vaccine-related names, were hit hardest following…

Weekly Performance S&P 500 4.66% Equal Weight S&P 500 (RSP) 4.25% NASDAQ 5.74% DOW 4.61% Russell 2000 (VTWO) 8.57% Talk of the Tape Polymarket trumped the pollsters, correctly forecasting a decisive Trump win. The Fed followed through with a widely expected 25 bps cut and a remarkably unremarkable presser. Stocks roared, culminating with the S&P…

Weekly Performance S&P 500 -1.37% Equal Weight S&P 500 (RSP) -1.37% NASDAQ -1.57% DOW -0.15% Russell 2000 (VTWO) 0.10% Talk of the Tape Although eco-data came up “goldilocks”, the mega-caps were met with mixed responses. Despite yield pressures continuing to hamper stocks, the majors remain at relative high levels ahead of the Presidential Election and…

Weekly Performance S&P 500 -0.96% Equal Weight S&P 500 (RSP) -1.92% NASDAQ -0.16% DOW -2.68% Russell 2000 (VTWO) -2.99% Talk of the Tape Despite solid earnings throughout the week, pressure from a rising U.S. 10-year yield kept a lid on stock prices. However, on Friday, yields eased, allowing many stocks to end the week on…

Weekly Performance S&P 500 0.85% Equal Weight S&P 500 (RSP) 0.86% NASDAQ 0.80% DOW 0.96% Russell 2000 (VTWO) 1.87% Talk of the Tape Retail sales beat expectations, and Taiwan Semiconductor’s strong quarter eased demand concerns. The market drifted higher on a steady flow of positive news, growing comfortable with a 25 bps cut at the…