Retired November 2025 – 9:25
Start the week with the “9:25” – you’ll get up to speed on what’s moving your money in the markets by the 9:30 open. Formerly, The Market Brief.
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What is Silicon Valley Bank (SVB)? SVB, the bank of choice for many of the U.S.’s most promising and innovative startups, was the 16th largest bank in the country. What Happened? Due to liquidity and insolvency concerns, SVB was shut down by California regulators. The FDIC has been appointed receiver, granting them the power to…
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The Week Behind Friday’s early-session rally sparked by Payrolls was overwhelmed by Silicon Valley Bank’s (SVB) collapse. Contagion concerns catalyzed a vicious, broad market plunge. For the week, the major indices – NASDAQ, DOW, S&P 500 – finished the week ~4.5% lower. Highlights Recapping Payrolls Heading into Payrolls, the market’s biggest question was how it…
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The Week Behind With “Fedtoric” (Fed rhetoric) causing a temporary stall in treasuries’ advance, the major indices broke multi-week losing streaks. The DOW added 1.75%; S&P 500 gained 1.90%; and the NASDAQ advanced 2.58%. Highlights Bull-Bear Stalemate Two confounding situations have created a powerful stalemate between bulls and bears. First, the U.S. economy is bifurcated.…
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The Week Behind Macro and micro data were mixed, but PCE went the way of the bears. The above-consensus inflation data opens the door a little wider for 50 bps and a terminal rate north of 5%. Justifiably, this sent yields and the dollar higher, which sent stocks lower. On the week, the S&P 500…
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The Week Behind CPI and PPI came in lower MoM but above the estimates. Wednesday’s eco-data, especially retail sales, suggest the economy is stronger than thought at the start of the year. Together, this induced hawkish Fed speakers and bearish analysts to call for 6-8% on Fed Funds. In response, investors rotated to beaten-up, defensive…
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The Week Behind Although all the majors ended the week in the red, the upward momentum and sentiment is still intact. CPI anxiety, which releases Tuesday morning, was likely the culprit for the trepid tape. However, nothing material changed. Assuming inflation data behaves, which I believe it will, I think the bulls will remain in…
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The Week Behind While Payrolls came in ghost-pepper hot, soft landing sentiment generated by the FOMC meeting and mega-cap earnings proved to be the greater force. Net-net, the FOMC meeting and mega-cap earnings earned the bulls enough credibility to award them the benefit of the doubt until data concretely supports the bear case of an…
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The Week Behind The early-year rally continued as all the majors closed last week in the green. The U.S. Dollar and treasury yields continued to behave near cycle lows as the case for 25 bps grew stronger behind Core PCE Inflation printing its third consecutive monthly decline. The NASDAQ outperformed, adding 4.32%. The S&P 500…
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With Microsoft (MSFT) reporting after the bell, now is a good time to talk mega-cap earnings. Recently, mega-cap layoffs have been in vogue. The market has embraced these announcements, bidding up shares of the associated company 3-5% and creating a spark of positive momentum. Investors are interpreting layoffs as a sign that mega-caps have found…
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The Week Behind Courtesy of Fed Governor Waller backing 25bps at the next meeting, the major indices enjoyed a comfortable rally to end the week. Last week showcased the tale of two markets that has been developing since late last year. On one side, the tech-heavy, soft landing NASDAQ ended the week 0.55% higher. On…
Gorilla With Glasses 