FlashNotes
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Earnings The quarter itself was impressive: a narrower than expected loss alongside beats on revenue and free cash flow (the money metric). Revenue: $22.02 billion v $21.2 billion expected. EPS: -0.47 cents v -0.78 cents expected. BA did not provide 2024 guidance, messaging a square focus on safety and quality. Gorilla Take The quarter went…
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About 20 minutes out from the close, and Boeing (BA) is against battling $200 on negative headlines. The Recap To recap, I view it as a coin-toss going into tomorrow’s quarter. The money-metric is cash flow guidance: Guidance beats, stock goes up; guidance misses, stock goes down. On one hand, the FAA’s production cap, today’s…
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A lot of stock were on the move this week. Here’s a quick update on the three mentioned in my Monday newsletter: Netflix (NFLX) Netflix (NFLX) has cleared a path to $600 by effectively executing their tiered pricing strategy and cracking down on password sharing while simultaneously enhancing their platform, most recently by adding live…
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Introduction In my newsletter, 9:25, I recently outlined a trade in Boeing (BA). As the downside exit price of $200 has hit on an intraday basis, it is only right to release an update to assist investors in evaluating their options from here. I will also disclose how I am handling the situation. What’s Changed?…
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Thesis After a faulty door plug incident on an Air Alaska flight using a 737-9 Max, BA stock swiftly plunged 23%. BA caught itself at $200: solid support level over the last 12 months. With the selling pressure on hold as the news flow has improved, I believe the stock is a prime candidate for…
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The Setup The stock market is a predictive instrument. It skates where the puck is going, not where it is right now. Technical indicators suggest ADBE is aiming to extend the 56% rally that started last May to better reflect its prospects as an AI-beneficiary, no longer encumbered by a costly acquisition (Figma). In May,…
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As we close out 2023, I wanted to share my thoughts on what the year’s most consequential developments mean for the years (and, perhaps decades) ahead. Of course, I am talking about the advent of AI and the adoption of GLP-1s. Then, to conclude, I will leave you with the best piece of advice I…
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Big Banks: In the aftermath of the March Bank Scare, the “Goliath over David” thesis gained popularity. This thesis suggests that big banks like JPM, WFC, and BAC – the “Goliaths” – would benefit from the loss of confidence in regional banks – the “Davids”. The latest round of earnings solidified this thesis, revealing that…
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Historically, the yield curve re-inverts only once the Fed is cutting rates in response to a recession. The rapid cuts bring short-term rates below long-term rates, re-inverting the yield curve. In my opinion, the recession signal is the Fed rapidly cutting short-term rates. A reversion of the yield curve is merely a natural consequence, not…
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Tuesday, Costco (COST) From a top-down perspective, Costco will provide data relative to consumer spending and inflation. The warehouse club has done an exceptional job growing their membership numbers by keeping costs competitive on non-discretionary goods, including gasoline, through the pandemic. For a stock-picking perspective, alongside Walmart and Amazon, Costco is one of the three…
Gorilla With Glasses 