Monday

President’s Day: Market Closed

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Tuesday

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Wednesday

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Thursday

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Friday

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Notes

Palo Alto (PANW)

A legitimate breather continues to elude the software sector. For one of the dominant names in cybersecurity, we’ll see how the market reacts to what I expect to be another strong quarter, characterized by overwhelming demand and continued execution.

Devon Energy (DVN)

This is one of the energy names I keep my eyes on. The bellwethers of the space – Chevron (CVX) and Exxon (XOM) – have already broken out. The Permian Basin names are starting to perk up, DVN included. I am playing the theme through FANG. While the Permian names are poised to move higher, it appears likely that earnings will separate the breakdowns from the breakouts.

Kinross (KGC)

Similar to Newmont — reporting the following day — this is a heat check on the precious metals mining trade. I still maintain my house-money position in AEM. That said, if you are in any of these names, they are moving as one and are serving your portfolio well.

DoorDash (DASH)

Although my beloved Uber — despite continued executional excellence — cannot catch a break as the market continues to overreact to the threat of autonomous ride share, it shouldn’t be forgotten that one of the strongest points of Uber’s quarter was delivery. This could go one of two ways:

1. Uber has stolen market share, which could explain why the stock has taken a material move lower (alongside the sin of being a software stock).
2. The backdrop for food delivery is extremely robust, which sets the stage for a material bounce back post-print.

I am not sure which is more likely. No insider scoop this time. However, this is certainly a place I could see last week’s sellers scramble to get back in, even if only for a day vis-à-vis Spotify (SPOT).

January FOMC Minutes

The stronger-than-expected payrolls report has cooled rate cut expectations, delaying the first of 2026’s two expected rate cuts from June to July. Although I celebrate the stronger data — though I expect it to be revised lower in the months to come — the Russell 2000 (R2K) tends to struggle in the short term with hawkish changes to the rate cut outlook… despite what those changes bullishly imply for earnings. 

Lately, price action overall seems a little heavy. As such, I see a possibility that what has consistently been a report you could ignore to create the sort of volatility day traders know how to leverage.

Advance Economic Data

This includes the leading economic index, trade balance in goods, retail inventories, and whole inventories. As previously mentioned, the overall market seems a little more sensitive than in prior months. Similar to the FOMC, while I typically wouldn’t highlight these four reports, it is possible we see some intrasession volatility associated with these AM releases due to the current feel of the market. 

Walmart (WMT)

Let’s welcome the newest member to the $1T club. I recently sold my entire position, making 18% in about a month. I feel as though I timed the rotation right and don’t want to stay in the name long term. Discipline trumps conviction and this venture was always a trade, not an investment. 

Stock broke out; thesis has played out; I am happy with the return. Staying in would be hubris and ultimately risks turning a winner into a loser. I did the same thing with AAPL last week. 

Zooming out, as someone who has always preferred Costco… I must admit that I am finding myself more partial to Walmart nowadays. Their investment in consumer-facing technology – one that Costco has yet to make or even talk about making – has created a superior experience at Sam’s Club and Walmart: delivery, in-store scan and pay, store maps, returns, locations of items in stores, etc… Honestly, the Walmart-Sam’s app is starting to mirror the Amazon app. 

Compared to Costco’s app… it’s embarrassing. So much so, if I were in charge of the Costco App, I’d shutter it until I could present something more competitive.  

However, price is truth. And the truth of today’s prices is that each company is doing extremely well despite a difficult environment. Concisely, I feel as though the easy money (or short-term money) has been made. While rotation may continue to benefit these names and I expect each will continue to do well for their long-term shareholders, I decided it was time for me to move on.

GDP Q4 Preliminary

The delta between the estimate and the prior may have caught your eye. The effect that trade has on GDP through inventories — which continues to be influenced by tariffs and demand for gold by central banks — makes analyzing these numbers more nuanced. I will reserve judgment until we can take a deeper dive beyond the headline.