General note: We remain in a sentiment-driven market. We have seen nothing but blockbuster results from the companies in the AI food chain. While gentlemen (and ladies) can debate whether guidance needed to be stronger, I see one side of the debate entirely driven by price action. 

While I can’t prove a negative, had AVGO’s post-earnings price action been bullish, I’d be willing to wager a mighty sum that the discourse surrounding their quarter wouldn’t have been clouded by skepticism.

Concisely, unless the only criterion that matters to you is price action, there is no argument to be made to characterize these quarters as “disappointing.”

Conclusion: Earnings aren’t the problem; sentiment is. I’m not sure what changes it, but while the market is in this posture, macro is king. This means monitoring the bond market will be a little more important than it has been.

Monday

Empire State Manufacturing Index | 10.0 est. & 18.7 prior | 8:30

Fed Governor Stephen Miran Speaks | 9:30

• This is the Fed Governor and voting member that is still technically serving – currently on unpaid leave – as Trump’s Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA). Each FOMC Meeting he has participated in, he has voted for a 50 bps rate cut. Expect dovish talk, but don’t expect the market to move in either direction due to his known bias. 

Fed Governor John Williams Speaks | 10:30

---

Tuesday

November U.S. Employment Report | 50k est. & 119k prior | 8:30

• This is the nonfarm report that should have been delivered the first Friday of the month. 119k is prior for September as we never received an October Payrolls report.
• Unemployment is expected to print 4.5%. 
• MoM hourly wages are expected to print 0.3%; I cannot currently find a YoY estimate, but September’s result was 3.8%.
• This is a tricky report to precap given the nuance of interpreting job creation in an environment with much less immigration than any prior period and a price environment dealing with tariff-related impacts.
• Watch the bond market for a more reliable interpretation:
  • Rising US10Y → hawkish.
  • Declining US10Y → dovish. 

October U.S. Retail Sales (Delayed) | 0.1% est. & 0.2% prior | 830

October U.S. Retail Sales Minus Autos (Delayed) | 0.2% est. & 0.3% prior | 830

S&P Flash U.S. Service PMI (Dec) | 54.1 prior | 9:45

S&P Flash U.S. Manufacturing PMI (Dec) | 52.2 prior | 9:45

---

Wednesday

Fed Speak

• 8:15AM | Chris Waller
• 9:05AM | John Williams
• 12:30PM | Raphael Bostic

Micron (MU) | After Close

---

Thursday

Initial Jobless Claims | 223k est. & 236k prior | 8:30

November Consumer Price Index | 830

• Headline YoY | Consensus Estimate: 3.1%
• Core YoY | Consensus Estimate: 3.0%
• Headline MoM | Sept Prior: 0.3%
• Core MoM | Sept Prior: 0.2%

Nike (NKE) | After Close

FedEx (FDX) | After Close

KB Home (KBH) | After Close

---

Friday

Final December Consumer Sentiment | 53.8 est. & 53.3 prior | 1000

Conagra (CAG) | Before Open

• Provide additional context on food inflation and consumer strength.

Paychex (PAYX) | Before Open

• Puzzling name. Although the fundamentals of this business are leveraged to the strength of the small- and medium- sized business they service, which – by looking at the Russell 2000 at an ATH – appear to be doing well, this stock is 28% off the YTD high. 

---