November Job Growth Bounces Back: Key Insights

It’s a pretty good economy, as far as the data is concerned:

📈 Headline job creation for November came in at 227k, surpassing the 214k forecast.
📈 October’s number was revised up to 36k from 12k.


Here’s how I see it:

The Economy

With November job creation bouncing back well above the trailing three-month average, it’s fair to conclude that hurricanes adversely distorted October Payrolls – not the start of something more sinister.

The Fed

Although I’m not sure this result should have moved the needle, the odds for a 25-bps December cut have increased from 70% to 90%.

For Stocks

This is bullish for stocks levered to leisure and hospitality. The segment accounted for ~23% of the jobs created: 53k out of the 227k. Many hotel, airline, and cruise line stocks are already in strong uptrends. Robust hiring in their industry reflects persistent demand, suggesting these names could go higher.


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