August 2024
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Weekly Performance S&P 500 -2.06% Equal Weight S&P 500 (RSP) -2.02% NASDAQ -3.35% DOW -2.10% Russell 2000 (VTWO) -6.67% Talk of the Tape Although Powell teed up a rate cut for the next FOMC meeting in September, convincingly soft labor data created a narrative that the Fed may already be too late in normalizing financial…
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This morning’s weak BLS payrolls survey reinforced the notion that the Fed may already be too late in cutting rates. Is it possible to act in a timely manner when relying on lagging data? Once this economic cycle is behind us, especially with the advent of real-time/alternative indicators developed during the COVID-era, the Fed will…
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The U.S. 10-year yield is on track to close with a 3-handle for the first time since February. Throughout 2024, the US10Y has served as a proxy for growth expectations. Its decline suggests that the bond market is forecasting weaker economic growth ahead. What’s behind this damper forecast? Three factors come to mind: 1) Today,…
Gorilla With Glasses 