Jobs data for February is in!

Although job creation was stronger than expected, unemployment and hourly wages, which I believe hold greater predictive value, printed dovish outcomes.

🦅 Job Creation: 275k act v 198k est.
🕊 Unemployment: 3.9% act v 3.7% est.
🕊 Monthly Hourly Wages: 0.1% act v 0.2% est.
🕊 Annual Hourly Wages: 4.3% act v 4.4% est.

In addition to reinforcing the thesis for rate cuts this year, this data provides the first piece of quantitative evidence confirming January as an outlier for elevated inflation. In fact, the revisions for the month show that January was not as economically robust or inflationary as the data initially indicated.

January Job Creation: 229k revised v 353k reported; ⁉ 35% delta ⁉

If I employed a model that was produced such erroneous results, I would revisit the model. Privately employed analysts would be fired. Influential people in the Fed and Congress use this data to make critical decisions that affect communities, families, and businesses everywhere.

This needs to get better. Perhaps, the BLS should call Nvidia CEO, Jensen Huang, to start on sovereign AI.