March 2023
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The Week Behind In spite of a sloppy start to Friday’s session courtesy of bankruptcy fears surrounding Deutsche Bank, U.S. markets were able to recover after European markets closed, alleviating the primary source of selling pressure. All the major indices tallied off a week in the green. The DOW added 1.18%; the S&P gained 1.39%;…
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The majority of my writing focuses on contextualizing complex market moves to assist in making investment decisions. While I occasionally discuss the sectors that I believe benefit from those market moves, I rarely mention individual stocks. However, recent volatility has caused unjust dislocations in certain companies’ stocks, creating attractive risk-reward scenarios only when defined entry…
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The Week Behind Overall, last week did not reveal any incremental news on contagion stemming from Silicon Valley Bank (SVB). Now, markets are in wait-and-see mode to see if action taken will restore confidence in the banking system. The longer we go without another incident, the better the market will feel. This is a “no…
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Confused by today’s rally in equities? No worries. I attribute this relief rally to three factors: 1) A group of financial institutions – Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, J.P. Morgan – are in talks to deposit ~$20B in First Republic Bank (FRC). 2) After touching a new 52-week low at around $65.50, Crude…
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As markets grapple with the implications of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), it is difficult to keep the emotion out of investing. Emotion – fear and hope alike – have no place in any investment strategy. Until regulators reach a more permanent resolution, we should expect increased volatility. To remove emotion from the equation, I defer…
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What is Silicon Valley Bank (SVB)? SVB, the bank of choice for many of the U.S.’s most promising and innovative startups, was the 16th largest bank in the country. What Happened? Due to liquidity and insolvency concerns, SVB was shut down by California regulators. The FDIC has been appointed receiver, granting them the power to…
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The Week Behind Friday’s early-session rally sparked by Payrolls was overwhelmed by Silicon Valley Bank’s (SVB) collapse. Contagion concerns catalyzed a vicious, broad market plunge. For the week, the major indices – NASDAQ, DOW, S&P 500 – finished the week ~4.5% lower. Highlights Recapping Payrolls Heading into Payrolls, the market’s biggest question was how it…
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Initial Thoughts Chat GPT has created significant excitement surrounding AI, causing associated stocks to skyrocket. Initially, I dismissed this as a typical buzzword bubble. However, earnings from Nvidia (NVDA) and Broadcom (AVGO) have led me to question my skepticism. Ambitious Statements From Conservative Management Jensen Huang, CEO of NVDA, remarked that AI is at an…
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The Week Behind With “Fedtoric” (Fed rhetoric) causing a temporary stall in treasuries’ advance, the major indices broke multi-week losing streaks. The DOW added 1.75%; S&P 500 gained 1.90%; and the NASDAQ advanced 2.58%. Highlights Bull-Bear Stalemate Two confounding situations have created a powerful stalemate between bulls and bears. First, the U.S. economy is bifurcated.…
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Shadows of 2022 The latter half of February felt a lot like 2022. If you told me what yields were going to do, I could tell you what stocks were going to do. Yields up; stocks down: nothing else matters, no matter how good or how bad. It was that simple. Financial Markets 101: Yields…
Gorilla With Glasses 