February 2023
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It is not my intention to make a weekly habit of this, but there have been update-worthy developments. In the prior update, I covered the two headwinds plaguing the space. In order for natural gas stocks to work, we need these headwinds to abate. The first is the more important of the two and will…
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The Week Behind Macro and micro data were mixed, but PCE went the way of the bears. The above-consensus inflation data opens the door a little wider for 50 bps and a terminal rate north of 5%. Justifiably, this sent yields and the dollar higher, which sent stocks lower. On the week, the S&P 500…
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The Week Behind CPI and PPI came in lower MoM but above the estimates. Wednesday’s eco-data, especially retail sales, suggest the economy is stronger than thought at the start of the year. Together, this induced hawkish Fed speakers and bearish analysts to call for 6-8% on Fed Funds. In response, investors rotated to beaten-up, defensive…
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Last week, I published a natural gas slide deck. Since then, the commodity has fallen further. Money put to work at the time of publication is likely in the red. I acknowledge that I have been wrong in the very short term. However, I am reiterating my bullish stance because nothing material has changed. Given…
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A Shift In Emphasis Despite a vast number of companies reporting before and after each session, economic data dominated this week’s tape (2/13 – 2/17/23). The market is shifting its emphasis from the micro – company-specific developments – to the macro – economy-wide developments. While this shift occurs quarterly, it is worth noting because in…
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I am long LNG and CTRA Click here for a download version of the slide deck.
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The Week Behind Although all the majors ended the week in the red, the upward momentum and sentiment is still intact. CPI anxiety, which releases Tuesday morning, was likely the culprit for the trepid tape. However, nothing material changed. Assuming inflation data behaves, which I believe it will, I think the bulls will remain in…
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The Week Behind While Payrolls came in ghost-pepper hot, soft landing sentiment generated by the FOMC meeting and mega-cap earnings proved to be the greater force. Net-net, the FOMC meeting and mega-cap earnings earned the bulls enough credibility to award them the benefit of the doubt until data concretely supports the bear case of an…
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When I woke up at 8:30AM to give Payrolls a cursory look, my initial thought was that the bear was about to reassert itself. These numbers imply wage inflation was far from contained, and that the Fed will need to go higher for longer. However, a few bullish nuggets buried within the report put in…
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Last week, I wrote a piece explaining how tech layoffs may imply slower growth for the mega-caps in 2023. If you haven’t, then I recommend skimming it; the implications came to fruition for MSFT, AMZN, AAPL, and GOOG. As each announced, the post-market reaction was mixed but became decisively negative once forward guidance revealed slower…
Gorilla With Glasses 